Long Range Weather Predictions

by pittcaleb Email    4423 views

forecastWith trepidation I read this recent Ann Arbor News article:

New Web site predicts long-range weather

Attention weather geeks: The National Weather Service has launched a new local climate report service.

The outlook gives weather watchers a long view on whether it's likely to be hotter or colder than normal for three-month to 13-month periods.

Knowing that weather prediction isn't so great in the first place - I mean the 3-day forecast is often wrong, let alone the 10-day one posted at weather.com, I navigated to the site, as they told me to do.

I grabbed the 3-month outlook for Ann Arbor and Detroit. Get this - for Ann Arbor (and Detroit, the numbers are the same) the weather over the next 3 months will be:

  • 34% chance of "near normal" temperatures
  • 35% chance of "below normal" temperatures
  • 31% chance of "above normal" temperatures

I am so glad I went to that web site. I mean I was predicting on my chalkboard a 33% chance of each. I sincerely hope they didn't put too much money into predicting the future!